Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Preview
Week eight of the 2023/24 United Rugby Championship has arrived as Ulster prepares to host Connacht at the mighty Kingspan Stadium this Christmas weekend. It is a quick turnaround for Ulster coming off a 6-day break after their week two Champions Cup bout. Neither side is in form for this clash, but the hosts will have the edge as the match kicks off on Friday, December 22 at 7:35 pm.
Connacht has won one of their last five games, playing most of their fixtures away from home. The Ulsterman are not much better this season, only winning two of their past five matches. However, Iain Henderson and company will carry more confidence into this game after taking down Siya Kolisi and Racing 92 by 16 points last Saturday.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Ulster and the Westerners go head to head in the 103rd match in their history, with Connacht looking to build on their recent success. The men in green have triumphed in their last two encounters versus the northerners, despite Ulster having 76 scalps on Connacht’s 22. The sides have only recorded four draws since their first match in the 1870s. Ulster sits seventh on the URC table, one point ahead of Connacht, who is right behind in eighth.
Attacking Stats
Both sides are evenly matched in attack, with Ulster leading the way for offloads, points, and tries scored. Connacht levels the playing field by posting superior metres gained, clean breaks, and the number of defenders’ beaten stats. Ulster has only scored a single try more than the Westerners. However, they dominate in offloads, which helps put Jacob Stockdale into space. Stockdale has crossed the whitewash five times this season, tying him for the fifth most tries in the URC.
Connacht gained 300 metres more than the Ulsterman and made 24 more clean breaks in seven matches. Diarmuid Kilgallen has certainly played his part, making the most clean breaks in the URC with ten, two more than any of his peers. While both teams are even in attack, we favour Connacht. They have gained more metres, beaten more defenders, and have a superior line-break record over Ulster.
Defensive Stats
The men in white have made more tackles than Connacht in this URC season, with a 90% success rate after seven rugby matches. Bundee Aki and his teammates dominate at the breakdown, winning 49 turnovers, eight of which have come from Shamus Hurley-Langton. The Taranaki native shares the honour of most turnovers won with rising Ulster star David McCann. Given Connacht’s less flattering tackle success, we feel Ulster has the edge on defence, but watch out for Hurley-Langton and McCann in the battle for pilfer dominance.
Set Piece Stats
Peter Wilkins and his troops outclass the hosts in every set piece area. His players have a better line-out win percentage and stole a greater portion of line-out ball off their opponents versus Ulster. The Northerners have the second worst line-out record in the URC as they only better the Cardiff Blues. Ulster’s lineout woes continued last weekend against Racing 92, where they were forced to take tap penalties to avoid going to the corner. Truth be told, it worked for Dan McFarland’s team because they scored three of their four tries from the set-piece move.
The teams tie for their percentage of scrums won, with an impressive 92%. The Connacht pack tips the scales in their favour after powering to four more scrum penalties than the boys from Belfast. The superior scrum penalties and line-out statistics put Connacht firmly ahead in the set piece department. They forecast light rain during the game, which may raise the importance of set-piece play on Friday evening.
Discipline Stats
Ulster edges Connacht on yellow cards, copping one fewer than the visitors. However, Connacht turns the tables with fewer penalties conceded and scrum offences than their opponents from Belfast. It is not just Ulster that Connacht outclasses. It is everyone in the URC because they have the best discipline record in the competition.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
In classic rugby union betting form, the bookies favour the hosts considerably more than the visiting Westerners. They priced Ulster at 1/5, which means a ten-euro punt returns €12. The low return exhibits the confidence the smart money has in Steven Kitshoff’s new team.
Despite the pricing, Connacht has won the last two encounters between these sides. They also boast a healthier discipline and set piece records compared to Ulster and are potent on attack. The bookies have the green team priced at 77/20 for an outright win, with a ten-euro bet returning €46. With only four draws in 102 matches, the odds of a tie are low. At 26/1, a 20 euro bet returns €520.
Connacht has been the better team in recent encounters, but neither is currently in form. Ulster broke a three-match losing streak against the Parisians in Belfast last weekend, while the Westerners have not won a match in over a month. The scales tip in favour of Ulster, given their convincing performance last weekend, history against Connacht, and superior defensive statistics. There is not as much star-studded power in this match as the Munster vs Leinster clash. However, names like Bealham, Kitshoff, Henderson, Cooney, Aki, Hansen, McCloskey, and Stockdale are nothing to scoff at.
Mack Hansen grabs the headlines in the lead-up to the fixture after missing last weekend’s clash with Saracens because of a foot injury. He is now back up and running and ready for the trip north to Belfast this Friday evening. Neither side has been impressive this season, but Ulster has the momentum going into this match. Despite losing the last 3 outings to the green team, they are on a high after their bonus-point win against Racing 92 last Sunday. It is a tough match to call, but if we had to pick a winner, we say Ulster by five or less.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
The duel in Belfast on Friday promises to be a tight affair. Since the result could go either way, we recommend making use of your welcome bonus to lower your risk. The odds suggest Ulster are hot favourite. However, on paper, the teams are even. If you are using your welcome offer, consider a wager on Connacht to walk away victorious. A ten-euro bet on a Connacht victory returns €46, which is a lot higher than the €12 payout for an Ulster win.
Even though Ulster is a firm favourite, it’s not a bad idea to get stuck in some in-play betting. If Iain Henderson and the lads fall behind early, it is an excellent time to back the Northern Irish to win, as the odds become more favourable. Another alternative is to place a first-half result wager. As it stands, a ten euro stake on Ulster to win the first half returns €13.64, compared to €30 for the Galwegians to bag the first 40 minutes. You can make a host of additional wagers on URC rugby, but a safe option is a draw-no bet. The odds are lower than an outright win, but you get your money back if the sides draw.
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Ulster Rugby Team News & Lineups
News broke on Tuesday that Rob Herring is unavailable for selection after copping an ankle injury against Racing 92 on Sunday. Billy Burns is also in doubt after suffering a concussion last weekend. On the positive side, Ulster international stars Kitshoff, Henderson, and Stockdale are fit for duty.
- Ulster Predicted Lineup: S. Kitshoff, T. Stewart, T. O’Toole, A. O’Connor, I. Henderson, D. Ewers, N. Timoney, M. Rea, J. Cooney, J. Flannery, J. Stockdale, S. McCloskey, J. Hume, R. Baloucoune, and M. Lowry.
Connacht Rugby Team News & Lineups
The story of the week in Galway is the return of Mack Hansen, who missed out on the last match day against Saracens with a foot injury. Santiago Cordero continues his rehabilitation for a knee injury. Another player that Connacht will miss is Diarmuid Kilgallen. He has broken more lines than any other player in the URC this season.
- Connacht Predicted Lineup: J. Duggan, D. Heffernan, J. Aungier, D. Murray, G. Thornbury, C. Prendergast, C. Oliver, P. Boyle, C. Blade, J. Carty, S. Bolton, B. Aki, T. Farrell, B. Ralston, and M. Hansen.
