Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Preview
Sam Noakes hopes to tick off another milestone in his impressive young career this weekend. The Maidstone native will fight Italy’s Gianluca Ceglia in a mandatory defence of his European title at York Hall. It’s an opportunity for him to get another highlight reel finish as he marches toward greater glory.
The undefeated Noakes is one of the most exciting British prospects today. He had an unbelievable 100% knockout percentage before his last fight. But in Ceglia, he faces a seasoned campaigner.
It’s no surprise that Noakes enters this fight as a big favourite. These tests are the makings of young fighters. Ceglia would desperately love to derail the hype train.
Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Noakes has enjoyed a rapid rise since he turned professional in 2019. The Kent native holds an undefeated 14-0 record with a crazy 13 KO victories. He went to a decision for the first time in his career when he fought Yvan Mendy last time out.
The result frustrated Noakes because Mendy refused to go away. It was a dominant victory for the English boxer who won 120-108 on every scorecard. He lit up the French boxer with his slick skills, but Mendy was tough enough to survive and end the longest active KO streak in British boxing.
This may have been an excellent test for Noakes because it was his first time to fight 12 rounds. Previously, he only went past five once in his career. That’s when he knocked out Shaun Cooper in the ninth in 2021. Noakes has a fondness for fast finishes, with most coming in rounds three or four.
Yvan Mendy was the most recent man to defeat Ceglia. The Italian hails from Campania and has a 21-4-1 record. He enters this fight off a four-fight win streak. However, his KO record is a measly 19% with just four. His last knockout victory was back in 2021. Meanwhile, he has mostly fought six-rounders throughout his career.
🇬🇧 UK DOUBLE HEADER THIS WEEK
🇪🇺 Sam Noakes defends his European title against Gianluca Ceglia at the York Hall on Friday live on TNT Sports
Saturday in Brentwood live on DAZN, 2 title fights: Elliot Whale (10-0) vs Lloyd Germain (9-1) and James Osborne (6-0) vs SA Smith (3-1). pic.twitter.com/jEjDNOu0e3
— EverythingBoxing (@EverythingBoxi2) September 2, 2024
Noakes trains under the highly respected Alan Smith at the iBox Academy in London. Frank Warren projects Noakes is a future undisputed champion. It’s still early days, but it’s fair to say that his ceiling is higher than Ceglia’s.
Ceglia is the EBU silver lightweight champion. He became the mandatory challenger after disposing of Frank Urquiaga in his most recent bout. However, he has somewhat of a journeyman reputation, so it’s difficult to see a path to victory for the Italian.
Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Predictions
Noakes is one of the top young fighters in the UK today. That’s why it’s difficult to imagine anything but a destructive victory for the undefeated EBU champion. Our boxing prediction is that he will knock out Ceglia with relative ease.
The English fighter already holds a dominant victory over the last man to defeat Ceglia. Of course, boxing maths doesn’t always work. But we don’t see how Ceglia will test Noakes after he struggled against Mendy. Mendy dominated Ceglia when they fought, and Noakes battered him.
“Midge” has dynamite in his hands and we’re predicting a KO victory. It was incredible that Mendy survived in his last match because he took plenty of damage. Sam Noakes is several levels above Ceglia at this point and is aiming for the stars.
It’s worth noting Ceglia is a former EBU lightweight champion himself. He’d love to reclaim his old title and go on a surge. However, it doesn’t seem likely for the Italian at this point in his career.
At 34, he’s seven years older than Noakes, who is moving into his prime. Meanwhile, his knockout record doesn’t inspire hope of a finish. He only has two KO victories in his past 10 fights. The last one was against Nestor Maradiaga who has a 9-11-2 record. In short, he’s not beating the best fighters on the planet.
Ceglia could try to make this fight ugly. Noakes has more technical skill and will enter this bout with additional motivation after losing his knockout streak. If the Italian can get inside and lure Noakes into a brawl, he may have some success. However, this is a high-risk strategy because he can’t take that kind of damage. He can’t afford the Brit to land a clean strike because it will be an early night.
One silver lining is that Ceglia only has one KO/TKO loss on his record, despite four defeats. That came against Anthony Yigit when he retired in the sixth round. He has yet to suffer a clean knockout, but we feel it could be coming his way.
Sam Noakes remains undefeated getting his 13th win with all of them coming by stoppage 🥊#SheerazWilliams
— COMBAT SPORTS TODAY (@CSTodayNews) February 10, 2024
Noakes says that he is desperate to go on another KO streak. He must take care not to overextend or take too many risks in pursuit of a finish. We believe his trainer Alan Smith will ensure that he stays calm and avoids stupid mistakes. Noakes will be comfortable fighting in the familiar surroundings of Bethnal Green.
Check the live betting markets during this fight. Boxing sometimes throws up wild upsets. The odds could shift if Ceglia snatches a couple of early rounds. Everybody has an off day sometimes, so Noakes may lose this fight. However, it would be an unbelievable upset.
Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Betting Tips
It won’t shock anybody our online bookmaker isn’t giving Ceglia much hope of winning this boxing match. The Italian is a massive underdog and it would be a tremendous shock if he defeated Noakes in Bromley.
Noakes is a 1/50 favourite in this match. Betting on Noakes to win outright is pointless because the odds aren’t attractive. A €10 stake would only make €0.20. Luckily, there are many other boxing markets to choose from that are more profitable.
One of the best options is to choose the method of victory. If you’re backing Noakes, it still won’t be very lucrative because a KO seems likely. The British boxer has a high knockout percentage and a history of early finishes.
That’s why it’s more advisable to select the round. We think he could finish this fight in the fourth round because he’s achieved this multiple times in his professional career. Ceglia will do well to survive past this point.
This also opens the over-under markets. We recommend choosing this fight to go under 6.5 rounds because Noakes rarely sees the five-round mark. Ceglia isn’t in the same class as Mendy, so we can’t see him taking Noakes to a decision. The Italian is tough and may survive, but we don’t believe in his chances.
Ceglia is a massive 10/1 underdog. A €10 stake would win €100 if he secured a stunning victory. We don’t recommend using real money on this bet because it’s too risky. It’s better to take advantage of our many bonuses and sports betting promotions.
The Italian’s best method of victory is probably a knockout. We can’t see him outpointing Noakes across 12 rounds. The Englishman is too skilful and hits too hard. Ceglia also has a very low knockout percentage, so history points to him falling short.
𝐇𝐄’𝐒 𝐅𝐑𝐎𝐌 𝐌𝐀𝐈𝐃𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐍𝐄 🌆
𝐇𝐄’𝐒 𝐆𝐎𝐓 𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐒 𝐎𝐅 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐍𝐄 🪨🤛
Sam Noakes is your new British Lightweight Champion and has a 100% KO rate.
An absolute monster at 135lbs 💥 pic.twitter.com/W3j6ye5QWl
— Dev Sahni (@devsahni) February 10, 2024
You could also choose Round Grouped Betting. This is a safer way to select the round the fight will end. We think Noakes will win in rounds 4-6 by knockout. Ceglia may retire in the corner if he takes too much damage.
Many British prospects are fighting this weekend. However, next week’s action offers some huge clashes. You can bet on Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga as there will be major titles on the line. Meanwhile, his former opponent Caleb Plant is also competing. He’ll finally face Trevor McCumby after a postponement. Consider creating a parlay to enhance your odds when betting on big favourites.
Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Outcome
Noakes is open about what he wants after this fight. Ultimately, he hopes to fight ranked names but acknowledges that may not happen this year. He plans to fight two more times this year and then he has a name on his lips. Noakes is targeting WBO lightweight champion Denys Berinchyk.
The UK star says he’s open to fighting anybody in the division. However, he wants a belt and believes Berinchyk is the easiest target. He says the Ukrainian is older and stylistically the easiest option. Noakes acknowledges that the likes of Gervonta Davis and Shakur Stevenson are beyond him right now.
Nobody is giving Ceglia a chance of winning this bout. It would be arguably the biggest upset of the year if he defeats Noakes. He’d love to recapture the EBU title. A win could see him rematch Mendy and try to avenge that loss.
