Nathan Heaney vs Brad Pauls Preview
British boxing fans are licking their lips in anticipation of one of the biggest rematches in recent history. Nathan Heaney and Brad Pauls will fight again on Saturday, July 20th in Birmingham’s Resorts World Arena.
The pair fought for the first time in March in one of the most exciting bouts of the year. It was a back-and-forth clash that ultimately ended in a draw. Heaney accepted the rematch against his rival with his Lonsdale title on the line.
This has the potential to be another thriller. Heaney was a prohibitive favourite ahead of the first fight, but the odds are closer this time. Pauls wants to prove that the draw wasn’t a fluke. He’s coming to knock Heaney out and snatch his British title.
Nathan Heaney vs Brad Pauls Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Heaney and Pauls will fight for the British Middleweight Title. It’s the ‘Hitman’s’ second defence after he won the belt from Denzel Bentley. The vacant WBA Continental Middleweight Title is also on the line, adding more prestige to the event.
Most people expected the 35-year-old Heaney to walk through Pauls in their first meeting. But it was a much closer match than anybody imagined. It began with Heaney showing his classy boxing skills, as he intentionally fought on the back foot.
Pauls came forward aggressively, but he could not land his shots. Heaney used his three-inch reach advantage to great effect as he connected with clean, straight rights. He countered brilliantly as he made it look easy.
The dynamic shifted in the fourth round as Pauls found his range. Heaney continued to enjoy success from a distance. But Pauls closed the gap several times and landed heavy punches on the inside. Suddenly, the fans had a proper fight on their hands.
Both men found more openings as the fight progressed. Heaney started throwing his right hand with more pop while Pauls smashed the champion with left hooks. This was turning into a thriller with the two fighters, determined to finish the other.
Pauls’ punches appeared to have more effect on Heaney in the later rounds. The referee was watching closely and he was on the brink of a standing eight count a couple of times. But Heaney powered through and dominated the 12th.
The fight went to the judges’ scorecards. One gave it 116-113 to Heaney. Another had it 115-114 Pauls while the third judge scored a 114-114 draw. They fought to a split-decision draw with Heaney retaining his belt. Now they’re going to do it all over again.
Both men are orthodox fighters, but that’s where the similarities end as Heaney has better technique. He proved how good he was when he defeated Bentley in his previous match, demonstrating his technical prowess.
However, sometimes heart and grit can be the great equaliser. Pauls has one defeat on his record after he lost to Tyler Denny at Wembley last year. The 31-year-old hung tough as he lost by unanimous decision. He rebounded with two wins, including a knockout over Mitchell Frearson.
The big question is how these men will look in this rematch. They’ve gathered 12 rounds of data about the other’s fighting style. Heaney remains a favourite, but our betting site is less confident this time.
Heaney must replicate what he did so well in the Bentley fight. He drew his opponent in, moved to the side, and countered with the backhand. This worked for three rounds against Pauls before his opponent figured out how to nullify this tactic. Heaney has a speed advantage over ‘The Newquay Bomb’ and is arguably the more intelligent fighter.
Steve Woodvine was immense in Heaney’s corner when he won the title. The coach gave him clear and calm instructions, ensuring he maintained focus through 12 gruelling rounds. Pauls rattled Heaney in the last match, so Woodvine must stop him from getting into a firefight.
Statistically, Heaney is more likely to win this fight by decision. The undefeated champion has fought 133 rounds in his 19 bouts, with a 33% KO rate. Meanwhile, Pauls has a 55% KO rate but only one knockout in his last five matches. There are plenty of questions ahead of this boxing rematch.
Nathan Heaney vs Brad Pauls Predictions
Prediction: Nathan Heaney to win by decision
Our boxing prediction is that Heaney will win this match by decision. He possesses more technical skills than Brad Pauls and is a superb counterfighter. Last time, Pauls could upset his rhythm by gritting his teeth and taking a punch to get inside. ‘Hitman’ and his coaches will expect this.
They’ve worked hard on making the champion comfortable under pressure. Pauls knows Heaney will try to keep this fight at a longer range. He must start faster this time and stop the champion from implementing his game.
WHAT. A. FIGHT. 😍
Nathan Heaney and Brad Pauls gave us a true fight of the year contender 🥊
Watch the #Magnificent7 fight highlights now 😍 pic.twitter.com/nIxfKlPwrs
— Boxing on TNT Sports (@boxingontnt) March 17, 2024
Paul enters this fight full of confidence. He doesn’t believe Heaney can hurt him, and this may inspire him to pursue an earlier finish. The Cornwall native won’t want to let the first three rounds slip away like in the first match. He also knows he can damage Heaney if he puts his hands on him.
Brad Pauls best chance of winning this match is by knockout. He made the first bout very uncomfortable for Heaney and will follow a similar strategy. However, this may leave him open to Heaney’s right hand.
There’s a strong chance this fight isn’t as exciting as the first match. Heaney may choose to take a leaf out of Shakur Stevenson’s book. Instead of meeting Pauls punch-for-punch, he may focus on his defence and eke out a points victory.
Remember to check the live betting odds during the match if one fighter has a clear advantage. Pauls has the power to change the balance of this match with one punch. But Heaney has the heart to make a comeback.
Nathan Heaney vs Brad Pauls Betting Tips
Betting on Nathan Heaney is the right move as he is the favourite to win this boxing match. It’s 8/15 for him to secure an outright victory over Pauls at Novibet. A €10 wager would win €5.33, so the temptation is to back him with a bigger stake.
Meanwhile, Pauls is a 7/5 underdog. This is substantially lower than the previous fight when he was priced at 12/5. It shows how many problems he gave Heaney in their first meeting and the chance for another upset. This time, a €10 stake would make a €14 profit.
Betting on boxing is fun because there are many markets. Consider wagering on the over-under betting for the total number of rounds. It’s 2/5 for this fight to go the distance and 3/10 for it to go over 10.5 rounds.
Remember, Heaney’s style and record suggest that a decision is his most likely method of victory. It’s 6/5 for him to outpoint Pauls which is decent value. This time, a €10 stake would make €12.
Pauls says he has no respect for Heaney’s power but thinks he can finish the champion. It’s 9/2 for him to shock the world and win by knockout. Meanwhile, it’s 3/1 for him to snatch a decision victory.
If you think there will be a knockout, you can bet on the round the fight will end. The most likely time for a finish is between rounds seven and nine at 11/2. Heaney has a better chance of getting it, but betting on Pauls might be a risk worth taking. It’s 11/1 for him to KO his opponent in this period of the bout.
REMATCH 🚨
Nathan Heaney and Brad Pauls run it back this Saturday, July 20 from Birmingham, England.
Streaming live & exclusively in the U.S. on @ESPNPlus. pic.twitter.com/e7T0vnA2Fm
— Top Rank Boxing (@trboxing) July 17, 2024
Several other big boxing matches take place on Saturday night. We already have a Jake Paul vs Mike Perry prediction available and Chantelle Cameron vs Elhem Mekhaled looks like a good super-lightweight clash. Meanwhile, former J-Kick superstar Tenshin Nasukawa will face Jonathan Rodriguez. It’s an excellent opportunity to use our welcome bonus on an accumulator across these big fights.
Nathan Heaney vs Brad Pauls Outcome
This is an important match for both men with their careers at stake. There are two belts on the line this Saturday. The Lonsdale title probably has more emotional meaning for Heaney and Pauls. But the WBA strap will have a greater impact on their places in boxing’s world rankings.
A match against Tyler Denny makes sense for both men. The European Middleweight Champion already said that he wants to fight Heaney. This would generate significant British interest. The dream for both fighters is a lucrative meeting with Chris Eubank Jr. so this might be the easiest way to get it.
Pauls would love to take revenge against Denny for his loss last year. A rematch appeared unlikely, but it’s a different story if he has two belts around his waist. Pauls would also have momentum with one of the greatest underdog stories in modern British boxing.
