Munster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Preview
Matchday eight in the URC is Munster vs Leinster, which kicks off on Tuesday, December 26 at 7:35 pm at Thomond Park. The defending champions are out for revenge after going down to the Dubliners 21-16 one month ago.
Table toppers Leinster are favourites for the bout, coming off eight wins on the trot in all competitions this year. Munster is battling injuries to key players, which saw them defeated by Exeter and draw to Bayonne at home in the ERCC. It will not get any easier this weekend against a formidable Leo Cullen and Jacques Nienaber side.
Munster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Munster and Leinster have locked horns on 111 occasions since 1879, with the Dubliners recording the lion’s share of victories. The sides have only drawn five rugby matches, with the last one occurring in 2001/02. Statistically, a draw is imminent between these two teams, but we think Leinster is just too strong for Munster in this round. The last time the Reds and Blues met, it was the latter who triumphed by 21-16 in Dublin.
Attack Stats
The URC leaders out-power Munster in every area of attack. They have scored 50 additional points this season compared to the Limerick lads and run in ten more tries. The Leinster team has gained over three kilometres, a 500m increase versus Munster. Gary Ringrose and his chargers also boast superior clean breaks and defender’s beaten record compared to this week’s host.
Defence Stats
Leinster is as dominant on defence as they are on the attack, beating Munster in every department except for turnovers lost. Munster has lost fewer turnovers compared to the visitors. However, Leinster are Trojans at the breakdown with 50 turnovers won this season. Both teams have completed 86% of their tackles, but Leinster has made 100 hits more than their opponents for this match.
Set Piece Stats
The visitors boast a superior line-out record over Munster, with more line-outs won and fewer lost. One can expect their line-out performance to only improve next season after acquiring the services of Springbok lock RG Snyman. Munster turns the tables in the scrum with an impressive 96% success rate this season. It is a mighty impressive feat from a front row, often disregarded in a nation blessed with props like Tadhg Furlong, Andrew Porter, Cian Healy, and Finlay Bealham.
Discipline Stats
Discipline is one area where Munster outclasses their visitors from Dublin. The men in red have conceded fewer penalties and scrum and line-out infringements. They are the fifth-best disciplined team in the tournament, three spots above Leinster. Munster will need to keep it tight and show their superior discipline if they are to stay in the game. They cannot afford to let the visitors keep the scoreboard ticking over. Otherwise, the game could end up out of reach for the hosts.
Munster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Predictions
Bookmakers often favour the hosts in United Rugby Championship betting, but that is not the case with Munster vs Leinster. The bookies favour the visitors and have odds of 67/100 for an outright win. A small ten-euro wager would return €16.67, which is not spectacular, but better than the favourite odds in most games we cover. If you think Munster can turn their fortunes around after last week, they price a win at 13/10. A twenty-euro wager stands to pay €46. Punters bold enough to back a draw can pick up odds of 19/1, translating into a €190 return for a ten euro bet.
Leinster are flying high, winning their previous eight encounters in the URC and Champions Cup. They have only lost one game this season, which was in week one to the Glasgow Warriors, where they were emphatically defeated. Munster won four of their seven matches in the URC in 2023/24 but they now return to Thomond Park on the back of a disappointing ERCC start. The Red Army only managed a draw to Bayonne at home before going down to Exeter at Sandy Park last weekend.
Graham Rowntree’s troops are well-drilled and look to get their season back on track. However, their task is monumental, with Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman, and recently Peter O’Mahony absent from the team sheet for the boxing day match. Leinster is also with their fair share of injuries, with Tadhg Furlong and James Lowe doubtful for selection. The Byrne brothers are still nursing their respective knocks, leaving Ciaran Frawley likely to pick up the kicking duties.
Despite playing away, Leinster should have enough in the tank to take this game by a comfortable 13 points or more. It would be a different affair if the hosts had a full-strength side. However, the leaders should walk away from Thomond Park with another victory to their tally.
Munster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Betting Tips
Leinster is the favourite for the encounter, but they carry a fair price compared to most favourite wagers in URC rugby. Placing a twenty euro bet on Leinster to win returns €33.33. It is a decent return, considering Leinster is the league leader and has won 8 consecutive games.
Based on the history of these sides, we notice that they statistically draw every 22nd game. However, they have met on over 50 occasions since the last draw between the sides. If you think we are in for a draw in this match, you can wager ten euros and stand to gain €190, an attractive return for a draw in rugby. It is not a bad time to make use of your welcome bonus if you are not ready to risk your own money on a draw bet. Besides betting on an outright winner or draw before the match, you can also take advantage of in-play betting.
Before kick-off, Leinster to win by one to seven points has odds of 11/4. This means a ten euro punt stands to return €37.50. However, if Leinster goes down by ten points in the first half of the game, those odds will be even more favourable to Leinster punters. Since Leinster has a stronger team on paper and has won more matches than Munster, they can bring it back. An alternative betting option is to place a handicap on Leinster if they go down.
As it stands, Leinster is 89/100 for a -2.5 handicap. To win your bet, the Dubliners must win by over 2.5 points so that when you apply the handicap, they still have more points than Munster. A twenty euro stake in this bet stands to return €37.60, but if Leinster is trailing the men from Limerick during the game, the odds for a -2.5 handicap on the visitors will increase.
📜✍️ | 𝗟𝗲𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝘂𝗴𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗚 𝗦𝗻𝘆𝗺𝗮𝗻.
Read the full story here: https://t.co/FW9IuchGkT#FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/VwzDsCeS0q
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) December 19, 2023
Munster Rugby Team News & Lineups
Munster is plagued with injuries, especially to their marquee players RG Snyman, Jean Kleyn, and Peter O’Mahony. Joey Carberry also remains on the sidelines, although he made headlines this week after Bordeaux Begles reported their interest in the out-half’s services. Snyman has also had the media abuzz with the worst-kept transfer secret confirmed earlier this week. In a bid to remain in Ireland, the double World Cup winner is switching to the blue of Leinster next season.
- Munster Predicted Lineup: J. Loughman, D. Barron, S. Archer, G. Coombes, T. Beirne, T. Ahern, J. Hodnett, J. O’Donoghue, C. Casey, J. Crowley, S. O’Brien, A. Nankivell, A. Frisch, C. Nash, and S. Daly.
Leinster Rugby Team News & Lineups
Leinster is still troubled in the out-half position with Ross and Harry Byrne on the sidelines. As are Ireland internationals Tadhg Furlong and James Lowe. However, overall, the Leinster lineup looks largely unchanged from the team that overcame Sale Sharks a week ago.
- Leinster Predicted Lineup: A. Porter, D. Sheehan, T. Clarkson, J. Jenkins, J. Ryan, R. Baird, J. van der Flier, C. Doris, J. Gibson-Park, C. Frawley, J. O’Brien, R. Henshaw, G. Ringrose, J. Larmour, and H. Keenan.
