Lions vs Ulster Preview
Ulster faces a tough test when they face the Emirates Lions in Johannesburg on September 28th. The two sides will meet in this United Rugby Championship game at Ellis Park Stadium. It’s one of the biggest match-ups of the round and should be a close contest.
The Irish province enjoyed a narrow victory over Glasgow in Belfast in the opening week. Meanwhile, this is the Lions’ first game of the new URC season. Both teams believe they can win, but the South Africans are the early favourites.
Ulster will enter this game with a gaping hole in their back row after losing Marty Moore. They must rebound from this major blow as they hope to push for a playoff spot this year.
Lions vs Ulster Key Stats and Head-to-Head
On paper, Lions and Ulster are operating at a similar level. Ulster finished four points above the South African side in the URC in 2023/24. Both teams won three of their last five games that season. They’ve met three times since the Southern Hemisphere teams joined the league. Ulster have been victorious in each of these clashes.
Their only game in Johannesburg saw Ulster emerge as 39-37 victors in a hard-fought win. It was a great game of rugby and proved that it’s tough for the European sides to travel to South Africa. This was one of Ulster’s most notable victories of the year.
Lions didn’t play in the first round because of the Currie Cup. They lost the prestigious final against the Sharks in a close defeat. They’ll hope to rebound from that disappointment with a morale-boosting win over Ulster.
The Irish side scraped a close victory over Glasgow last week. The Warriors were the better team for most of this game, but paid the price for consecutive yellow cards. Ultimately, David Shanahan was the hero as he came off the bench to score the game-winning try. Ulster ran out as 2019 victors over last season’s URC Final champions.
One man who emerged with plenty of credit was Aidan Morgan. The 23-year-old former Hurricanes star scored a try and dictated play for Ulster. Many pundits are already projecting that the Ireland-qualified fly-half will receive his first cap this year.
Ulster v Glasgow Warriors | Highlights | Round 1 | URC 2024/25
Last season the Lions scored 536 points with 57 tries. They were more prolific than Ulster, who had 457 points with 67 tries. However, Ulster’s defence was more watertight than their South African counterparts. There’s not much between these teams on paper.
Both teams thought that they had finalized their squads ahead of the new campaign. However, Ulster suffered an enormous blow this week when Marty Moore retired for mental health reasons. The prop was a top player and is a huge loss.
This is Ulster head coach Richie Murphy’s first full season in charge of the province. He impressed after taking over last year. Meanwhile, Ivan van Rooyen has been head coach of the Lions since 2019. He is under pressure to improve his side this season.
Lions vs Ulster Predictions
Predicted Score: Lions 29 – 23 Ulster
Lions enter this game as a favourite on the sports betting platform. They’ve never won this tie and they’re dealing with a tough Ulster side. It will be a close game, but our rugby prediction is that the South African team should have enough in the tank to win.
Ulster have all of their players available but this can’t disguise the problem they have at front-row. Marty Moore’s retirement came at the worst possible time for the team. They scrummaged very badly against Glasgow and can’t afford a repeat against the physical South Africans.
We think they rode their luck against Glasgow. Yes, they won, but the Warriors suffered two yellow cards and still dominated the game. Ulster snuck a victory through a late try, but they can’t depend on that as a sustainable tactic. They also must improve their set plays.
It’s not all bad news for Ulster. Aidan Morgan’s performance on his URC debut was excellent. Now John Cooney is returning from injury. If they can forge an effective partnership, they’ll be a very dangerous duo. Jacob Stockdale provides a lethal outlet on the wing.
Van Rooyen knows his team can win this game from the scrum. The South Africans will put their bodies on the line. They suffered a tough defeat at the weekend and this will spur them on to make Ulster pay. Watch out for tighthead prop Asenathi Ntabakanye. He scored an outstanding try against the Sharks in the Currie Cup Final.
There are plenty of flair players on both sides. Stockdale scored an outstanding nine tries for Ulster last season. Francke Horn was the Lions’ top-scorer with eight. Both teams will hope for a winning bonus point.
Tighthead prop, Marty Moore, has confirmed that he will retire from professional rugby on medical advice.
We thank Marty for everything he has given to the shirt over the last six years and for his unwavering commitment to the team 🤍
He will always be part of the Ulster… pic.twitter.com/Zya84I5Tky
— Ulster Rugby (@UlsterRugby) September 23, 2024
Discipline could be a factor in this match too. Marius Louw and Luke Marshall both received two yellow cards last year while three Lions players earned reds. These games can be emotional and tetchy so we predict someone will go to the sinbin. This could be a defining period of the game.
Travelling to South Africa is a tough test for the Northern Hemisphere URC teams. Fatigue can be a factor that influences performance. This may impact some of Ulster’s players this weekend.
Remember to check the live betting odds. Rugby is a very physical sport, and anything can happen. One injury to a key player or a sin-bin can change the course of a game. We saw that last week when Ulster came from behind to beat Glasgow.
Lions vs Ulster Betting Tips
Ulster enters this game as underdogs against their South African opponents. A €10 wager on Ulster at 17/8 would make €21.25 if successful. This is a sizeable profit, but we give them a decent chance of beating Lions in Johannesburg.
Nonetheless, the South Africans are justifiable favourites at 4/11. We think the line could be a little closer because they’re inconsistent. However, their physicality in the scum could be a huge advantage because it is Ulster’s Achilles heel.
Ulster’s triumvirate of Cooney, Morgan, and Stockdale is up there with the best in the United Rugby Championship. Lions must suppress them if they hope to win this game. It’s going to be tough because Ulster are a dangerous attacking side. If the Irish province wins, we think it will be by a maximum of 1 to 7 points.
This market is available at 4/1, so there’s a potential profit of €40. This may be tempting for some players as a prop bet with the Irish side to win outright. We’d choose the same winning margin for the Lions because there’s not much between these teams. At 13/15, you could turn €10 into €26.
Betting on rugby offers many exciting markets. Consider an over-under bet on the total number of points in this match. We predict there will be over 45. Another market is odd-oven total match points with both selections available at 17/20.
We’re kicking off the season in full force at Emirates Airline Park this Saturday! 🦁🔥 Join us as we take on Ulster in our season opener.
🆚 @UlsterRugby
🗓: Sat, 28 Sept
⏰: 12H55
🎟: https://t.co/QpxzaiqFWU
🏟 : Emirates Airline Park
🏆: @URCOfficial_RSA@vodacom #URC |… pic.twitter.com/DKvPV3QRnq— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) September 25, 2024
We fancy Jacob Stockdale to snatch a try in this clash. The Irish international was clinical last year and wants to become a Six Nations contender again. However, the Lions’ defence could be crucial in this clash. They were outstanding against The Sharks last weekend despite suffering a cruel defeat.
Don’t forget to look beyond this game at the other matches this weekend. Leinster will host Newport while Munster travels to Zebre. Finally, Connacht welcomes The Sharks to the Showgrounds. Why not create an accumulator involving all the Irish teams to enhance your profit?
New players can take advantage of the welcome bonus. The betting site will match your first deposit up to €500, so you can play without any extra risk. This could be a good chance to bet on the overall URC winner. Leinster is the early favourite but we like Munster at 11/2. This would turn €10 into €55 if successful.
Lions Team News
Lions have a full-strength team to choose from. The biggest talking point is at fly-half. Sanele Nohama started in the Currie Cup Final ahead of Kade Wolhuter. We think that he will continue because he has the coach’s trust.
Ulster Team News
Richie Murphy has most of his squad to choose from ahead of this game against the Lions. John Cooney is currently training normally and travelled with the team to South Africa. It remains to be seen if they risk the scum-half against the Lions.
Marty Moore is the team’s only significant absentee after his official retirement. Cormac Izuchukwu and Harry Sheridan are absentees because they joined the Emerging Ireland squad.
