Leinster vs Dragons Preview
Leinster host Newport Dragons on Friday, September 27th at the Aviva Stadium. It’s the second week of the United Rugby Championship. Both teams are coming off morale-boosting wins and hope to extend their streak.
The Irish province enters this game as a massive favourite. But Newport had a huge victory over their big rivals Ospreys. They know it’s going to be an uphill battle to beat Leinster in Dublin, but they’ll give it a good shot.
It would be a major shock if the Dragons win this game. But this puts pressure of a different kind on Leinster’s shoulders. They should win but this is rugby, and anything can happen.
Leinster vs Dragons Key Stats and Head-to-Head
This is a one-sided rivalry. Leinster is on a 13-game winning streak against Dragons that stretches back to 2016. Last season they earned two victories over the Welsh side. Their last meeting was a 33-10 smashing at Rodney Parade. Newport’s last win over Leinster was in January 2016. In 2015, they did the double over the Irish side for the only time in the series.
Leinster defeated Edinburgh in a tight 33-31 opening-day victory. Sam Prendergast’s exceptional performance was one of the biggest takeaways. Fans put head coach Leo Cullen under pressure to start the young fly-half and he impressed with comparisons to Jonny Sexton. However, this a four-way battle between Prendergast, Ciaran Frawley and the Byrne brothers.
Newport finished 15th in the URC table in 2023/24 as they endured a tough season. They’re hoping for better results this year and started their new campaign with a bang. It took a last-minute try from their replacement prop Luke Yeddle to seal victory over the Ospreys.
However, Leo Cullen will have taken note of how Ospreys put Newport under pressure throughout this game. The victory was against the run of play because Ospreys dominated the second half. Leinster are a more clinical side so Newport can’t afford to give them the same opportunities.
Dragons trailed 21-13 with five minutes left on the clock. Then Yeddle blazed over with Lloyd Evans adding the conversion. The fly-half had an outstanding competitive debut for Dragons as he scored 13 points. His quality is a crucial boost as Newport hopes to move up the table this year.
Leinster also has a new attack coach in Tyler Bleyendaal. The New Zealander has a strong pedigree as a coach with Hurricanes and as a player with Munster. Now he has incredible riches at his disposal. He has elite match winners like Jamison Gibson-Park and James Lowe.
Leinster vs Dragons Predictions
Predicted Score: Leinster 45 – 17 Dragons
Our rugby prediction is that Leinster will dominate this URC game. They have a much stronger squad than Newport. Both sides are likely to rotate this weekend. Leinster’s depth should improve with the return of their top internationals.
Leinster scored more than twice as many tries as Dragons in 2023/24 with 87 to 36. It’s difficult to imagine the Welsh side’s attack overly threatening their Irish opponents. Leinster also had almost double the number of points with 597 to 300. They gained 8277 metres while Dragons only secured 5447.
The Irish province has an almost full-strength side to choose from. Internationals like James Ryan and new team captain Caelan Doris will also return. A weakened Leinster defeated Edinburgh in a tough opening-day test. Now Newport will face a stronger beast. This is ominous for Dragons because we can envisage Leinster turning on the style.
They have quality all over the field. RG Snyman and Tadhg Furlong are two of the best players in their positions in the world. Snyman had the second-most offloads in the URC in 2023/24 with 22 and is a valuable new asset to Cullen’s side. Meanwhile, Caelan Doris is emerging as one of the world’s top players. It will be special for him to lead his team at the Aviva for the first time.
We expect this to be a try-fest. The likes of Rob Russell, Lowe and Larmour possess devastating pace. This could get nasty for Newport if they’re not careful. They must be defensively secure but that may be impossible against a team of Leinster’s quality.
Newport head coach Dai Flanagan is adamant that he will freshen up his side ahead of the clash in Dublin. Australian centre Harry Wilson could come into the starting lineup after he impressed as a replacement. Meanwhile, Steff Hughes is another potential contender. His leadership would be crucial to provide calm against Leinster’s onslaught.
Are you ready for the first home game of the season? 😤#LEIvDRA #FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/LJnNO9o0jT
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) September 23, 2024
Leinster suffered too many turnovers last season with the second-most in the United Rugby Championship. However, this is slightly misleading because they dominated the ball more than most teams. However, it may be something that Newport attempts to exploit.
The biggest question for Leinster is who their starting number 10 will be. Sam Prendergast impressed against Edinburgh but will join the Emerging Ireland squad this week. Ciaran Frawley would be the fan’s choice after his impressive summer displays on the South Africa Tour. However, it’s probably going to be Ross Byrne, despite his sin bin in his last performance.
Don’t forget to check the in-play betting in this game. Newport may race into a shock lead. We’d still predict Leinster to win the second half but the odds may be more favourable. Everything can change with an injury to stars like Jamison Gibson-Park or Lloyd Evans.
Leinster vs Dragons Betting Tips
Leinster are a huge favourite to win this rugby match on the sports betting platform. It’s currently 1/100 for them to win so a €10 stake would only make 0.01 cents. This isn’t much good to anybody but luckily rugby union betting has many other markets.
We advise checking out handicap betting because the returns are potentially more lucrative. A -27.5 handicap at 22/25 looks good. This time a €10 stake would make €8.80 if they pull it off. Betting on Leinster is advisable because they’re a much stronger team than Dragons.
However, upsets happen and Newport may win this game. They’re 14/1 underdogs so the bookmakers aren’t giving them a chance. Maybe they’ll have an inspired performance and grab their first win in Dublin for almost a decade.
Consider betting on the winning margin because this is another great market. The bad news is that a wide winning margin for Leinster is only 1/6. A better price is for them to defeat Newport by 8 to 14 points at 13/2. This time a €10 stake would make €65 if successful. An over-under bet might be a better idea because this could be a high-scoring game.
Another option is picking the winner of each half. Most people expect Leinster to run away with this game. Newport struggled last season but they come into this game off a morale-boosting win. New fly-half Lloyd Evans adds some quality to their starting lineup.
Check the individual player odds too. We predict that Ross Byrne will start for Leinster. He’s never been the most inspiring fly-half and we think he may miss at least two kicks. Ciaran Frawley and Sam Prendergast are breathing down his neck. The Byrne brothers are on borrowed time with Leinster.
UNBELIEVABLE 🔥
The @DragonsRFC win it in the dying seconds😤#BKTURC #URC | #DRAvOSP pic.twitter.com/TOLW7rYB8c
— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) September 21, 2024
We think Leinster could score at least five tries against Newport. Why not bet on James Lowe to grab two? The Irish international hopes to make his first start of the season and has superstar potential. Garry Ringrose, Jordan Larmour and Rob Russell also present a devastating threat.
Some players may create an accumulator to enhance the odds. There’s plenty more United Rugby Championship action this weekend. Munster play Zebre in Italy and are also big favourites. Meanwhile, Connacht welcome the Sharks to the Showgrounds. Ulster has a tough test in South Africa against the Vodacom Lions. Bet on Munster, Connacht and Ulster to win!
Leinster Team News and Predicted Lineup
We expect to see Leinster’s internationals enter the fold this weekend. Caelan Doris and James Ryan should return. Michael Milne is an injury doubt. Tommy O’Brien has a hamstring problem but should join Sam Prendergast on Emerging Ireland duty. Ross Byrne will probably be the starting fly-half but Ciaran Frawley is also available. Dan Sheehan remains out with a knee injury.
- Leinster Predicted Lineup: Jamie Osborne, Rob Russell, Gary Ringrose, Charlie Tector, Jordan Larmour, Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park, Michael Milne, Gus McCarthy, Thomas Clarkson, Rabah Slimani, James Ryan, Caelan Doris, Scott Penny, Jack Conan.
Dragons Team News and Predicted Lineup
Dai Flanagan has a few selection quandaries this weekend. He wants to rest Leon Brown but injuries to Chris Coleman and Dmitri Alap may force his hand. Steve Cummins remains a doubt with minor injury niggles. Steff Hughes will likely return to the starting line-up after captaining the side last season.
- Newport Predicted Lineup: Angus O’Brien, Rio Dyer, Harry Wilson, Aneurin Owen, Jared Rosser, Lloyd Evans, Dane Blacker, Rodrigo Martinez, Brodie Coughlan, Leon Brown, Ben Carter, Matthew Screech, Ryan Woodman, Harri Keddle, Shane Lewis-Hughes.
