Leinster Rugby vs Leicester Tigers Preview
The European Rugby Champions Cup is back this weekend, and we have several tasty fixtures to look forward to. One fixture that caught our eye is Leinster Rugby vs Leicester Tigers. Every cup game is vital from now as we enter the knockout stage of the tournament. Can Leinster go one step further this year and take home the trophy?
Leinster vs Leicester takes place on Saturday, April 6th at 8:00 PM. It’s a rematch of last year’s quarter-final when Leinster hosted the English side after defeating Ulster. The Tigers will have some hope of revenge. However, they could not get one back on Leinster when the teams faced off at the Welford Road Stadium in January. With even more at stake this weekend, can the Leicester Tigers stop the rampant Irish side?
Leinster Rugby vs Leicester Tigers Head-To-Head and Key Stats
As mentioned, Leinster and Leicester have faced each other several times in the European Rugby Champions Cup over the past couple of years. This year, both teams found themselves in Pool Four. Leinster topped the group with four wins, zero defeats, and no draws. Leicester struggled against the other teams in the group, losing their last two matches against Stade Rochelais and Leinster.
Looking at the seven most recent matches between the Irish and English sides, Leinster has the advantage. Leicester has only won this matchup once, back in 2008. Since then, the team from Ireland has found another gear and has won by considerable margins. In January 2024, the Leicester Tigers welcomed Leinster in the final group game of the ERCC. The hosts started on the front foot with a ten-point lead in the first 20 minutes. Leinster responded with two tries before the halftime whistle.
With a five-point lead at the break, the hosts were pressured to get something out of the game. However, Tom Whiteley felt it the most and wound up in the sin bin three minutes after the restart. A deliberate knock-on allowed Leinster to increase the lead from the line-out. Sheehan scored the try, and the game went cold until after the hour mark. Jack Conan put the visitors down to 14 men with 14 minutes to play. However, the Tigers could not capitalise and a try in the fifth minute of added time sealed the game for Leinster.
When Leinster vs Leicester last took place in the knockout stage of the Investec Champions Cup, the Irish side ran away with the scoring. Two Ringrose scores gave the Irish side a 17-10 lead at the break. An early yellow card to Sweetman-Doris did not stop the flow of points. Both sides contributed six scores in the final 40 minutes, not including a penalty try and a yellow card to Leicester’s Clare. Mike Brown also went to the sin bin during the half as the English side gave it everything before the final whistle. The second half had 52 points scored, but the final score was 55-24 in favour of Leinster.
Looking at the recent form of either side shows a stark difference in how they have performed this season. Leicester is seventh in the English Premiership, ten points off the Northampton Saints. Leinster is first in the United Rugby Championship by five points, having only lost two games all season. Their last defeat came on New Year’s Day.
Based on their recent form and previous matches against Leinster, it appears highly unlikely that the Leicester Tigers will achieve a positive result this weekend. The Irish side has got the better of the English Premiership team in six of their last seven meetings, including five in a row. The recent matches have seen Leicester lose by 17 and 31 points. Strange things happen in knockout rugby matches, but surely a Leinster hiccup is almost impossible this week.
Leinster Rugby vs Leicester Tigers Predictions
Prediction: Leinster 23-10 Leicester
Leinster vs Leicester promises to provide excitement. We predict the Irish team will take an early lead in this match, ending the first half with a seven-point advantage. The second 40 minutes will feature most of the scoring, and Leinster will beat Leicester by 13 points at the final whistle. Although we predict 23-10, it could be a larger scoreline if both teams keep 15 men on the field.
One factor to consider in this matchup is the number of yellow cards in the past two matches. The referees have administered five yellow cards, with the majority going to the English side. Leicester will know on paper they are at a disadvantage compared to Leinster. This is why head coach Dan McKellar, will look for other tactics to make Leinster work hard for the win. After all, it’s knockout rugby, so a sin bin won’t matter if you are heading home.
Three of the past five yellow cards have gone to the Tigers in this fixture, showing their intentions of breaking up the game. Giving away penalty tries or other needless scores will make Leinster’s job easier, so the English side will need discipline to pull something off. However, given how superior Leinster is against the Tigers in recent years, we can’t see a change in the narrative this weekend. We think Leicester will put up more of a fight than in the last match, but the score will reflect a comfortable day for the team from Ireland.
It's Leinster week 👊 #COYT 🐯 pic.twitter.com/nu5Qn7Rz4e
— Leicester Tigers (@LeicesterTigers) April 1, 2024
Our rugby prediction is a low-scoring first half between Leinster and Leicester until one side drops to 14 men. Low-scoring halves and yellow cards are common in previous matches between the clubs. We expect less than 20 points scored before the break and only around 33. Even if Leinster goes behind, we would place a live bet on a turnaround and victory by 13 or more points.
Leinster Rugby vs Leicester Tigers Betting Tips
Betting on rugby matches is often exciting at this stage of the competition. However, this fixture is a lot more one-sided than we would like. Leinster is the clear favourite at our online sports betting site. The odds of the Irish side winning are 1/16, which means you stand to make a meagre profit no matter how much you stake. Betting on Leinster this week will see €20 turn into €21.50. Placing a ten-euro wager on the away team at 15/2 will yield €85 if they can pull off a miracle.
Instead of betting on Leinster to win the match, you can look at alternative markets to maximise your profit. Choosing a -11.5 handicap on the home side will give you odds of 2/5. For this wager to be a winner, the leaders of the URC must beat the Leicester Tigers by 12 points or more. Our prediction is a margin of 13 points, which should make this bet a winner. If you are feeling brave, you can go for even larger handicaps.
Avoiding the winner entirely is another option this week. You can bet on the number of points being odd or even. You can also bet on which half will contain the most points. We predict this week that the second half will see the most scores. Both these markets return considerably more than an outright prediction, and there is less risk.
One last option to consider if you want to bet on the European Rugby Champions Cup this week is an accumulator. While the returns for this match are not the most rewarding, you can combine your prediction with other fixtures. The more legs in your bet slip, the larger the potential returns.
If you want to place a rugby wager this weekend, you could sign up for Novibet and claim a welcome bonus. Joining our online betting site this week will give you an exciting bonus to place on any of the rugby cup matches. Betting on this fixture will be troublesome, as the favourites will not give you the best profit. You may have to look at more risky markets when using your promotion this weekend.
🏉 | Injury Update issued ahead of this weekend's match against @LeicesterTigers
Read here 👉 https://t.co/5RN0nO2O3U#LEIvLEI #FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/EOxJqzkqFT
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) April 1, 2024
Leinster Rugby Team News
There is a lot of good news for Leinster fans this week as several players edge closer to a return. Robbie Henshaw and Luke McGrath have begun the return-to-play protocols. The medical team will assess Jimmy O’Brien, Hugo Keenan, and Ciarán Frawley this week. Andrew Porter and Garry Ringrose are also on the mend, but a return against the Leicester Tigers could be too optimistic. Cormac Foley has returned to train with the team and Charlie Ngatai has stepped up his rehabilitation. Alex Soroka, Tommy O’Brien, and James Ryan are unavailable for this game.
Leicester Tigers Team News
Leicester lost Basset early in the first half last week, but the Tigers put in a mighty display against Newcastle. Having come from behind several times in the match, the Tigers held off the Falcons with the clock firmly in the red. Newcastle pressed on for a winner into the 100th minute of the game but could not get a result. While Leicester needed that confidence boost heading into this game, playing 20 minutes of additional time will affect the legs in the side. Expect to see some changes when the sides line up this week.
