Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Preview
Sean Brady hopes to reenter title contention when he faces Gilbert Burns this weekend. The two men will meet at UFC Vegas 97 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. It’s a huge fight for both men with massive stakes.
Brady was a surging prospect before he ran into Belal Muhammad. Now, his career is at a crossroads. Meanwhile, Burns has been one of the 170 lb division’s best fighters for the past few years. However, the Brazilian is enduring a two-fight losing streak and is getting older.
Both men desperately want to win this match to stay relevant. A win would catapult them close to title contention. However, losing would be catastrophic for both of their hopes of securing that elusive belt.
Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Burns is one of the most high-profile fighters in the welterweight division. The veteran has a record of 22-7 with 15 finishes. He has a reputation for being a submission specialist with elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Burns also has heavy hands with six KO victories to go along with his nine subs.
Meanwhile, Brady went on a rampant 15-fight win streak before Belal Muhammad. ‘Remember The Name’ won that fight by TKO in a dominant display. Many people wrote Brady off, but the loss aged better after Muhammad became champion.
Brady rebounded with a victory by Kimura over Kelvin Gastelum in 2023. Before losing to Muhammad, he was averaging two fights per year in the UFC. His activity dropped to fewer than one, but he’s working hard to level up.
‘Durinho’ is on a two-fight losing streak. He dropped fights against Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. The former saw him suffer a devastating KO loss. Many people are writing him off because he’s 38 and gone 3-3 in his past six fights. However, the reality is Burns lost to the best in the division.
At 31, Brady is seven years younger than his opponent. His style is also very different with a strong wrestling base. He has a 50% finishing record with five submissions. Three of his past five victories came by submission. He is an interesting fighter because he uses a different technique for each win.
Gilbert Burns is just mean on the mat
Great integration of striking to grappling to advance position and claim the arm bar pic.twitter.com/6RAy2d0p8N
— William – Open Note Grappling 📝 (@OpenNoteGrapple) September 1, 2024
Burns trains out of Kill Cliff FC in Deerfield Beach, Florida. He counts Henri Hooft and Greg Jones as his main coaches. His elite training partners include top fighters like Michael Chandler and Shavkat Rakhmanov.
Brady fights out of Renzo Gracie Philly under Daniel Gracie. They have a strong stable with Pat Sabatini, a fellow UFC alumnus. This was also Paul Felder’s gym before he retired from MMA.
Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Predictions
Fight Prediction: Brady to win this fight by decision
Burns and Brady are two top of the UFC’s top grapplers. There’s very little to separate them on paper. However, our MMA prediction is that Brady will win this fight. He is younger and hungrier than his opponent. Losing to Belal Muhammad may be the best thing that ever happened to him in the long term.
Brady’s youth could be a key factor. Both men have elite BJJ, but we think Brady edges Burns in the wrestling department. He should be able to push a furious pace against the Brazilian. It wouldn’t shock us if he became the first man to beat ‘Durinho’ by submission.
The fact Brady has been relatively inactive suggests that he is focusing on his training. He dedicated himself to improving after the disappointment of losing to Muhammad. There’s a sense that he is still trying to reach his highest ceiling. We would like to see Brady go back to basics and focus on the area where he excels.
The opposite is the case for Burns, who is trying to maintain his level. However, we’re not writing him off. There’s a strong chance these men cancel each other out on the ground. This could turn into a kickboxing match and Burns appears to have the edge on the feet. Brady has yet to win by KO/TKO in the UFC. His last striking finish came back in 2019 when he was in CFFC.
Burns has a real chance to win this if he can shut down Brady’s wrestling. The Brazilian has dynamite in his fists. Don’t forget he beat elite opposition like Tyron Woodley, Stephen Thompson, and Demian Maia. Burns has defeated better fighters than Brady and is a more proven athlete.
Sean Brady dominated Kelvin Gastelum
What impressed me the most was how mobile he wasBrady kept taking his hooks out so he could stand over Gastelum, push and pull on his shoulders, and then throw him to the mat
Just an incredible showing pic.twitter.com/gJzSUjuRqM
— William – Open Note Grappling 📝 (@OpenNoteGrapple) September 2, 2024
One of the main narratives coming into this match is that Burns is past his prime. We don’t think this is true. His most recent defeats came against the reigning champion and a potential No. 1 contender. There’s no shame in that. However, his thick muscular frame is susceptible to gassing out. This will be even tougher as he ages. It could be a serious issue if Brady can take him deeper into the fight.
Another factor in Burns’ favour is he has more experience in five-round fights. Headlining the Apex isn’t a huge deal, but he knows how to handle the championship rounds. Check the live betting odds if either fighter tires in round three.
Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Betting Tips
Sean Brady is a sizable favourite to win this UFC welterweight fight in Las Vegas. Betting on Brady outright at 1/2 may seem like a sensible option. A €10 stake would make a €5 profit if he wins this fight.
However, even though we’re picking Brady to win, we think Burns is a live underdog. It would be very tempting to bet on him at 6/4. This time, a €10 wager could make a €15 profit. Brady is a justifiable favourite, but we think the odds are wider than they should be on our online betting platform.
The Philadelphia’s most recent win came nine months ago against Kelvin Gastelum. Gastelum isn’t the same fighter he once was. We believe Brady is better now after intensive training and more experience. But we won’t know until we see him face Burns in a proper test of his abilities.
Meanwhile, Burns has fought the division’s best fighters. Yes, he’s won some and lost others, but he hasn’t shown a weak chin or slowed down. His experience could be crucial in this match and it could be very tempting to back him.
Betting on Brady to win by decision seems like the smartest option. Brady has a low finishing rate while Burns has superb BJJ. It would be remarkable if Brady inflicts the first submission loss of Burns’ career. A rear-naked choke is the most likely option.
We think that Burns’ best method of victory is to knock Brady out. The Brazilian has powerful punches with several highlight reel finishes. Jack Della Madelena dissected him in their last match, but the Australian is elite on the feet. Brady has decent striking, but he’s more of a wrestler.
https://twitter.com/ufcfanfighter/status/1830502622953865599
Another option is to play the over-under markets. We expect this fight to go the full five rounds, so bet on the fight to go past the 3.5 mark. However, if you think there will be a finish, it may come later in the match after both men tire.
Betting on MMA is even more fun when you make a parlay. You can bet on Jessica Andrade vs Natalia Silva in another clash with title ramifications. Meanwhile, Matt Schnell faces Alessandro Costa. Schnell is the card’s biggest underdog at 18/5, with €10 potentially making a €36 profit. Use Novibet’s welcome bonus to enhance the odds without the risk.
Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady Outcome
This fight’s winner will look up the division. There’s a logjam at the top with Muhammad yet to announce his next opponent. Brady is open about wanting to beat Ian Garry and the UFC may revisit this. It would also be a sensible main event if the UFC returned to Dublin for the first time since 2015.
Another option could be the winner of Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley. However, there are limited match-ups for ‘Durinho.’ He is close friends with Ian Garry while he has already fought most of the names above him. Leon Edwards would make sense because he has never faced the former champion.
A win is both fighter’s primary concern. Losing would be catastrophic for Burns because it would relegate him to gatekeeper status. It wouldn’t be as bad for Brady because he has time on his side. But it would still cast him adrift in a division full of sharks. There’s no room to fail when the stakes are so high.
