Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Preview
Erislandy Lara will attempt to defend his WBA middleweight title against Danny Garcia. The pair will meet in Las Vegas on the main card of Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga. Whisper it, but this is a more intriguing match-up than the headliner.
There are plenty of unknowns heading into this bout. Both men are veterans, although Garcia lacks experience in this division. Some would argue that ‘Swift’ has fought better opponents than Lara throughout his career.
Legacies are on the line in this exciting match-up. Lara enters this fight as a sizeable favourite, but Garcia believes he can upset the odds. The action goes down at the T-Mobile Arena in Sin City.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Erisandy Lara is hoping to defend his WBA strap for a third time by beating Garcia this weekend. The Cuban boxer holds a strong 30-3 record with 18 KO victories. He has a 60% knockout rate with four in his past five matches. Lara fights out of a southpaw stance and will have a reach advantage of almost six inches.
Meanwhile, Garcia fights out of an orthodox stance. ‘Swift’ enjoys great popularity, but he hasn’t been very active. This is only his second fight since 2021. His last victory was against Jose Benavidez Jr. when he won a majority decision in his middleweight debut. Now he’s jumping into a title shot in a tough match-up.
Both men are two-weight champions across their excellent careers. Now Garcia hopes to add success in a third-weight class to his CV. His earlier glory came at light welterweight and welterweight almost a decade ago.
Lara is only an inch taller than Garcia at 5”9’. However, he’s a naturally bigger man than the Philadelphia native. Garcia has never suffered a knockout loss in his 37-3 career. However, he’s taking an enormous risk in the heavier divisions where fighters naturally have more mass. Garcia has a 56% KO percentage with his last knockout coming against Adrian Granados in 2019.
DANNY GARCIA IS BACK 🔥#CaneloBerlanga | Sep 14 | Live on DAZN: Click link in bio to buy 🥊@premierboxing | @matchroomboxing
📸 via dannyswiftgarcia/IG pic.twitter.com/beHWZ5COSc
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) September 8, 2024
- Garcia is 2-3 in his past five fights with defeats against Errol Spence Jr. and Shawn Porter. He’s beginning to accumulate damage and has many miles on the clock. It almost feels like he’s the older boxer despite being Lara’s junior by five years. Lara is 41 while Garcia is 36.
There’s no question that Garcia represents a step up in skill from Lara’s last four opponents. But there are doubts about his durability at middleweight and if ring rust will be a factor.
Garcia still trains under his father, Angel, in Philadelphia. The tight-knit duo have been one of boxing’s top father-and-son partnerships throughout his career. Lara has been training with Ismael Salas in Las Vegas since he left Ronnie Shields in 2019.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Predictions
This is a clash between two experienced veterans who are entering the twilight of their careers. However, Lara appears to be in a better place right now than Garcia. That’s why our boxing prediction is that the Cuban will win by decision.
Garcia has never been the most talented boxer. His main attribute is that he’s a great all-rounder. He has decent conventional skills and is a good athlete with a professional attitude. These traits combined to bring him to the top of the sport.
However, he struggles against unconventional fighters who won’t stand in front of him. Lara falls into this category because he likes to feint, move, and be awkward for his opponents. This could be a difficult match-up for Garcia and he may find it frustrating. Remember, Lara once took Canelo to a split decision. Many fighters have avoided him throughout his career.
Meanwhile, Lara’s 6.5-inch reach advantage will be a big problem for Garcia. ‘Swift’ will need to balance between staying out of range of Lara’s jab with breaking the distance to land his strikes. That’s going to be a big challenge.
Lara’s finishing ability has improved later in his career. He knows he’s slowing down and has adapted his style to land more power shots. Garcia is extremely tough but his best days were at 140 lbs. If Lara hits him, there’s a good chance that he will stay hit. We respect Garcia’s ambition of becoming a three-weight champion, but it’s going to be very difficult.
.@laraboxing is like fine wine 🍷. He's getting better with age. His punch potency is becoming more powerful too, with 4 of his last 5 fights ending by KO 💥.
Lara defends his WBA Middleweight world title against Danny Garcia Saturday, Sept. 14 on @SportsonPrime. #LaraGarcia… pic.twitter.com/Xx9LpLF0pB
— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) August 25, 2024
Lara is also the more active fighter despite it being almost two years since his last bout. Some fighters say that they don’t believe in ring rust, but momentum could be a factor. ‘The American Dream’ unquestionably has more of that right now. Both men have plenty of motivation coming into this one.
Garcia wears his heart on his sleeve and he does have good boxing skills. We expect Lara to be too slick, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Garcia’s basics did the job. It would be a surprise if he finished Lara but this could be a very exciting decision.
Lara enters this match as a favourite but the odds could fluctuate if Garcia claims a couple of early rounds. It’s always worth keeping an eye on the live betting odds, especially if the underdog is enjoying unexpected success.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Betting Tips
This is a relatively close boxing match on paper, but we think Lara will win. He is a 2/5 favourite on the sports betting platform. A successful €10 wager could net a €4 profit. This isn’t huge, but could be tempting with a bigger stake.
That’s risky though, because Garcia is a live underdog. It’s 7/4 for him to become a three-weight champion by beating Lara. There’s plenty of uncertainty about how he’ll look after a long layoff in this heavier division. This time, a €10 stake could make a €17.50 profit. Even players who think Lara will win may find this too good to resist.
There are many other boxing betting markets to choose from. Consider an over-under bet on how long this fight will last. We’re predicting that it will go to a decision. Lara is more likely to win by knockout with two of his past three KOs coming in the first couple of rounds.
You can be even more specific if you’re predicting a finish. If you’re betting on Lara to knock out Garcia we’d choose a later round. Garcia is very resilient. It will take something special to end his night early. Maybe his corner will throw in the towel if they think he is taking too much damage.
Grouped-round betting is another safer option. Consider selecting rounds 10-12 for Lara to find the finish. However, this isn’t the way we expect this fight to go. We think Lara will use his jab to keep Garcia at bay. It may not be the most entertaining bout if he sets this pattern early.
Erislandy Lara is accurate 🇨🇺💥#LaraGarcia #CaneloBerlanga
pic.twitter.com/cmp1Z5hIrw— #RingsideFracas (@Ringside_Fracas) September 9, 2024
Meanwhile, Garcia’s most impressive knockout victories came between rounds seven and nine. If he finishes Lara, it may be within the same timeframe. There’s a good chance that Lara will outpoint Garcia across the first four to five rounds. But if ‘Swift’ can find his distance he may become a problem for the Cuban.
Unconventional boxing styles can be a nightmare. But sometimes the basics can be very effective against elusive and tricky fighters. Garcia won’t have much time to adapt but if he can, he could be a more challenging opponent for Lara than he’s expecting.
Another good option is to create a boxing accumulator. This is an excellent fight card with some great match-ups. Caleb Plant fights Trevor Mccumby in one highlight bout. Canelo Álvarez defends his belts against Edgar Berlanga in the polarizing main event. You can bet on Plant and Canelo and add Lara for a three-leg accumulator. Try using one of the betting platform’s bonuses or promotions to enhance the outcome.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia Outcome
Some analysts are predicting that the loser will retire this weekend. That’s very possible because they’ll be out of title contention. However, we wouldn’t bet against Garcia attempting yet another comeback. He is open about his dream of becoming a promoter.
Garcia says that he wants a big match-up with someone like Terence Crawford or Sebastian Fundora if he wins. Sometimes we should be careful what we wish for. He may get what he wants because the belt brings bargaining power.
‘Swift’ also wants to avenge his losses and could go after Errol Spence Jr. again. Meanwhile, Lara has an eye on boxing’s Hall of Fame and wants a unification fight against one of his fellow middleweight champions. Maybe he could even tempt ‘Bud’ up to fight for the chance to be five-weight champion.
