Croatia vs Italy Preview
Croatia versus Italy takes place on Monday, June 24th, at 8 pm. It’s a crucial game for both sides, but the pressure is on Croatia. After an appalling 3-0 defeat to Spain and an embarrassing 2-2 draw to Albania, the Croats need to pull off a masterclass to have any hope of progressing in this year’s Euros.
Italy enters this fixture after a disappointing performance on Thursday night. They never looked likely to trouble Spain, and the young Spanish players found gaps in their defence throughout the night. The Italians fought back, but they fell short of their European rivals. This next match will be massive for both teams, as either side could qualify or head home.
Croatia vs Italy Key Stats and Head-To-Head
The three most recent matches between the two countries reveal an interesting pattern. Nothing has separated the sides over the past 12 years. That includes when they faced off in Euro 2012 and the qualification stages of 2014 and 2015. Each of these fixtures has finished 1-1, both home and away. However, a draw is not enough for Croatia with a spot in the knockout stage on the line.
The most recent fixture was in an empty stadium in Split. Five minutes into the game Croatia won a penalty from a clumsy challenge. Buffon stepped up to save the weak effort from Mario Mandžukić. Less than five minutes later, Italy had the ball in the back of the net from Stephan El Shaarawy, but the goal was offside. Whilst three Italian players were screaming at the linesman, Croatia took a quick free kick and broke down the right wing, finding an unmarked Mandžukić six yards out from goal. He made no mistake this time and rifled the ball into the roof of the net.
Italy manager Antonio Conte went berserk, but it was Buffon who picked up an early yellow card for dissent. Italy found gaps in the Croatia back line, but the breakthrough came from a Mandžukić handball in the box. Referee Martin Atkinson did not hesitate to point to the spot and a Panenka from Antonio Candreva put the team’s level. Italy looked the more likely for the rest of the game but failed to find a way past Danijel Subašić. Instead, the referee handed out nine yellow cards in the fixture, with two going to Croatia’s Darijo Srna. He received his marching orders in the 90th minute, too late to have any impact on the game.
Croatia is the better-ranked side according to the FIFA men’s soccer rankings. They are ninth in the world and Italy is tenth. However, the Italians found a way past the spirited Albanians, whereas Croatia succumbed to the pressure. Both teams displayed a lot of defensive fragility against Albania. Italy responded quicker than the Croatians and held on for three points instead of one. Croatia deserved nothing more than a point from that game, and they looked truly beaten.
Italy’s next game was even tougher as they faced Spain. This Spanish side is not afraid to play dirty and has the quality and enthusiasm to cut teams apart. Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are two fantastic soccer players. They are dangerous with the ball at their feet and have incredible composure for such young players. Lamal looked unstoppable again, and Williams fired a fantastic shot onto the bar from the edge of the box. He also missed an unmarked header on the six-yard line in the first half. Pedri should have scored early in the second half to help ease tensions, but there only looked like one winner in this game. Even though, the only goal scored was an own goal by centre-back Riccardo Calafiori.
Croatia vs Italy Predictions
Prediction: Croatia 1-1 Italy
Our Euro 2024 prediction for this game sees Croatia fall short of three points again. We expect to see a lot of fight as they push towards a qualification spot, but their weak defensive structure will see them concede late in the game to eke out a 1-1 draw. Italy will keep a cool head as they already have three points on the board. Surely a draw will see them through the group stage, no matter what.
Croatia has only scored two goals at Euro 2024, which is a little surprising. However, without players like Mandžukić leading the line, it’s hard to see where goals will come from. With Mateo Kovačić and Luka Modrić, you’d expect danger on every attack. However, both Spain and Albania managed the dynamic duo well, cutting out a lot of Croatia’s threat. Our soccer prediction sees this narrative continuing, ending their golden generation with a fizzle rather than a bang.
Italy has goal-scoring problems of their own, with their two Euro 2024 goals coming from Barella and Bastoni. The front three of Chisea, Scamacca, and Pellegrini have been uninspiring, to say the least. Manager Luciano Spalletti must change things heading into this game as they lack a goal-scoring threat up top. However, with a bench short of reliable firepower, could Spaletti look to El Shaarawy for something different?
We predict the last game of Group B to be a nervy one at first. Impetus will be on Croatia to take the game to the Italians who will hit hard on the counter. We need to see a completely different Croatian side for them to have a chance of progressing in the competition. However, if we were betting on the winner of Euro 2024, neither team really fit the bill. Instead, a draw is the most likely event, unless the Italians can find another gear. Both teams must step it up or face an early fight home after the group stage or round of 16.
Croatia vs Italy Betting Tips
Betting on Euro 2024 has been incredibly difficult so far, especially in Group B. While many of us wrote of Albania, they have played with grit and determination since minute one of the Euros. The same does not apply to Italy or Croatia, which is why this game is hard to call. If we had to pick one, betting on Italy to win is the better option as they have played the more consistent soccer so far. However, writing off the Croatians so early could prove a costly mistake.
At our online betting site, Italy is the favourite to win this match with odds of 7/5. A €10 bet on the Italians will return €24 if they can pick up another three points on Monday. Unusually, a draw is the next most likely outcome for this match, with odds of 23/10. In soccer, a draw is often a high-paying wager. A tie is not uncommon in tournament soccer, especially since there is no extra time in the group stage. Betting on Croatia has the best returns, with odds worth 12/5. A ten-euro stake will give you €34, but it’s an enormous risk based on their previous performances.
Besides betting outright, you can look at other soccer markets. This can include prop bets on players to score, register an assist, make a certain number of fouls, or pick up a yellow card. If you are feeling confident with your prediction, you can use the bet builder to create an accumulator. This is where you can combine multiple bets into one high-paying wager. For example, Italy to win, both teams to score, and Bryan Cristante to pick up a yellow card.
Over/under betting is another option for this game as we don’t predict over three goals scored in the fixture. Most games at Euro 2024 have been tight, with fewer than three goals in several group-stage games. Italy and Croatia struggled to score in their opening two games, so betting on under 2.5 goals could be a good option. There are several lines for the over/under market, meaning you can choose under 1.5 goals if you see this being a 1-0 game.
In a match like this, waiting until kick-off is not a bad way to play. Making live bets during a game at the Euros is a good move, as you never know how a team will react. Croatia must find something in this game, or they are almost certainly going home. However, Italy will want to put a poor performance against Spain behind them, and what better way to do so than with three points and second in the group? To make a live wager you can sign up at Novibet and claim a welcome bonus. You can use this bonus on any game at Euro 2024.
"We have to go all in. It's not the first time for #Croatia, and we'll believe until the end, as we did before. Italy is probably the best team in the group, but we'll give all that we have. Hopefully, that will be enough to progress"
🔊 Andrej Kramarić#EURO2024 #Vatreni❤️🔥 pic.twitter.com/77k0dcTrDl
— HNS (@HNS_CFF) June 20, 2024
Croatia Team News and Predicted Lineup
Nikola Vlašić is the only injured player in the Croatian squad. Even if they get through to the round of 16, we don’t expect to see Vlašić again in this tournament. Croatia made all five changes against Albania, including two at halftime to change the game. We expect some of these changes to stick as they looked like a stronger team for most of the second half.
- Predicted Lineup: D. Livaković, I. Perišić, J. Gvardiol, J. Šutalo, J. Juranović, M. Kovačić, M. Pašalić, L. Modrić, A. Kramarić, L. Sučić, and B. Petković.
Italy Team News and Predicted Lineup
Italy has no injury concerns, but they are lacking firepower. In their last game against Spain, Spalletti made two changes at halftime to get some fight out of his team. It did not work as they did not show any fight until the second round of substitutions 64 minutes into the match. Cambiaso made a difference, but players like Chisea, Scamacca, Pellegrini, and Frattesi were not involved in large parts of the game. Sticking with the lineup would be risky, and making changes could also backfire.
- Predicted Lineup: G. Donnarumma, G. Di Lorenzo, A. Bastoni, R. Calafiori, F. Dimarco, A. Cambiaso, Jorginho, N. Barella, L. Pellegrini, M. Zaccagni, and G. Scamacca.
