Connacht Rugby vs Bristol Bears Preview
The Investec Champions Cup continues this week, and several teams are yet to record their first win of the campaign. Connacht is the host on Friday, January 19, and they welcome the Bristol Bears to Galway. The Irish side is now bottom of pool one after three games, and their fate seems sealed.
Despite some excellent performances from the Bears in the English Premiership, they have also struggled in the European Rugby Champions Cup. Bristol has one win after three games, and they are above the Saracens only on point difference. A win for either side seems vitally important, especially as Connacht sits four points adrift at the bottom of the table. Will the advantage of playing at home be enough for Connacht in this do-or-die game?
Connacht Rugby vs Bristol Bears Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The two famous rugby clubs have only met once in recent history, and it was in the ERCC. The game took place in December 2020, and Connacht was the home side. Unfortunately, the visitors were too hot to handle, and they cruised to an 18-27 victory. Although that match was over three years ago, we can still take some important aspects from the game.
The first half was incredibly low-scoring, with only one try for the away team. Bryan Byrne got a score five minutes before the end of the half, but the conversion sailed wide. Jack Carty got Connacht on the board with the last kick of the period, putting the score at 3-5 after 40 minutes. Bundee Aki went to the sin bin two minutes after the restart, and the floodgates opened. Tries from Holmes and O’Conor gave the Bears a healthy lead.
Connacht responded with an O’Halloran try after 57 minutes, giving the Irish side a lifeline back into the game. Charles Piutau lost his cool and received a yellow card with 67 minutes played. Even with a man down, Bristol looked the better side. Lloyd scored a try in the 72nd minute for the Bears, ending all hopes of a Connacht comeback. There was a late consolation try for the Irish, but a Bears penalty was the last action of the day.
Both teams featured in the European Rugby Champions Cup last weekend, but neither side got a result. Connacht fell short on the road when travelling to Lyon. They lost the match by 14 points, but they were outclassed throughout the affair. Although the Irish side got on the board first with a Sean Jansen try, the home side led 20-10 at the break. The difference in the first half was the Irish side missed their conversions and gave away more penalties. Connacht also scored first in the second half, but two more French tries meant Lyon was never in any real danger.
The Bears were still hibernating when the Bulls came to town last weekend. Johan Goosen got the first points of the game and went to the sin bin a couple of minutes later. Even with a man down, the Bulls got the first try, resulting in a 0-10 lead inside 15 minutes. The hosts responded with a Leiran Marmion try, but things only got worse for the Bears. Max Lahiff received a yellow card after 44 minutes, and Bristol crumbled. Three tries in ten minutes meant the hosts had a mountain to climb. A third yellow card in the game to Elrigh Louw inspired a resurgence. But the two late Bears tries were only a consolation.
It’s Bristol that enters this contest in better form, having won three of their last six matches. Connacht ended their losing streak on New Year’s Day, convincingly defeating Munster at home. However, they have lost six of their last seven games in all competitions. Connacht started the season brightly, but they need to string together some results. Losing again in the cup in front of the home crowd will cause a mighty headache for head coach Pete Wilkins.
Connacht Rugby vs Bristol Bears Predictions
Predicting rugby matches is always challenging, and this match is no different. Looking at the odds available at the sports betting site, there is little between the underdog and the favourite. According to the online betting sites, Connacht has the edge with odds of 8/11. A €10 wager on the Irish side will return €17.27 if they win the match by any margin. The same wager for Bristol is worth 11/10, resulting in a €21 payout from the same bet. A draw on Friday has odds of 20/1.
We predict it will be a close game, but we expect the Irish side to clinch it. Connacht defeated tough opposition at home last week and got 20 points against Lyon with a depleted squad. However, don’t overlook the Bristol Bears. They put in a fantastic performance the week before the ERCC resumed defeating the Sharks 14-22. Betting on Connacht to turn their poor form a round is always a sensible option when the Irish side is playing at home.
The Bears have been difficult to predict throughout the Investec Champions Cup campaign. A week one victory against Lyon looked unlikely once the home side let a 33-10 lead slip. Lyon stepped up to bring the score 33-34 with two minutes to go, but a Callum Sheedy penalty was enough to win on the day. Since then, the Bears lost away to Bordeaux, and at home to the Bulls. Interestingly, there has been at least one yellow card in each of Bristol’s cup games this season.
While Connacht has been better at avoiding the sin bin, they have picked up two yellow cards in recent matches. One came in their last home match against Munster, and the other was in the cup game against the Saracens. If you are considering live betting, a yellow could be on the cards this Friday.
Connacht Rugby vs Bristol Bears Betting Tips
This rugby union match is unlike your average matchup. Neither side is playing consistently in the league, and Connacht is coming off a string of poor results. Betting on the home side in rugby is usually a good idea, and that’s the way we see this match going. However, when the odds are tight between two clubs, it makes sense to look at other markets besides the outright winner.
We see this fixture being settled by five to ten points. That means a handicap bet is an option for this match. Connacht with a -1.5 handicap this week pays 17/20. If Connacht wins the game by two or more points, you get larger returns than an outright bet. You can get even better returns by choosing the winning margin instead. Connacht to win by one to seven points is worth 14/5. A €10 bet on this market will return €38 should your prediction come true.
Betting on the European Rugby Champions Cup this season has been incredibly difficult. Some teams, including Connacht, have yet to get started. While it’s probably too late for the Irish side to mount a charge for the top spots in the division, it would be foolish to write them off for any match on home turf. Several teams have already put in shocking results in the past few weeks, just like the 5-45 loss Connacht faced when hosting Bordeaux.
If you are going to bet on any rugby match, ensure you gamble responsibly. Everyone loves a cup competition, but the group stages are often troublesome to get right. That is why we look at alternative wagers instead of the match-winner. The other markets to consider include the number of points scored by both sides or which team will lead at halftime. Bets like these often have more returns than the match result.
Connacht Rugby Team News and Lineup
Last weekend, Connacht was missing two key players for the trip to Lyon. This week, Bundee Aki and Finlay Bealham are available, following the IRFU programme. More good news for the Galway side as Caolin Blade and Tiernan O’Halloran look fit enough to make their return. Blade had a concussion and O’Halloran has recovered from a foot injury. Cathal Forde has resumed training following his shoulder injury, but his fitness is yet to be confirmed by the medical team.
𝗦𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗱 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 🏉
An update ahead of Friday's game at home to Bristol in the @ChampionsCup: https://t.co/pzglsNEuV9#ConnachtRugby pic.twitter.com/o6XtCZXBL9
— Connacht Rugby (@connachtrugby) January 15, 2024
Dylan Tierney-Martin and Jack Aungier remain a doubt for this Friday’s game. Tierney-Martin picked up a neck injury during the warmup at Lyon and Aungier is recovering from illness. Unfortunately, even with all this good news, several key personnel are unavailable. Colm Reilly, Paul Boyle, Diarmuid Kilgallen, Santiago Cordero, Sean O’Brien, Oisin McCormack, Shane Jennings, and John Porch will not make the game.
- Connacht Predicted Lineup: P. Dooley, T. McElroy, F. Bealham, D. Murray, J. Joyce, C. Prenderghast, S. Hurley-Langton, S. Janse, C. Blade, J. Carty, S. Bolton, B. Aki, T. Farrell, A. Smith, and J. Hanrahan.
Bristol Bears Team News and Lineup
Last week, Virimi Vakatawa returned to the squad following his muscle strain. He could make a full return this week, as well as Harry Randall. Randall was eager to pay last week against the Bulls, but the medical team advised him to rest. Jake Woolmore recovered from his illness last week and should also be back to full fitness. Fitz Harding is another player shaping up for a return against Connacht, which is great news, considering who is still out on the treatment table. Yann Thomas and Ellis Genge will miss the match in Ireland.
- Bears Predicted Lineup: M. Lahiff, G. Oghre, K. Sinckler, J. Caulfield, J. Batley, S. Luatua, D. Thomas, M. Bradbury, H. Randall, A. MacGinty, G. Ibitoye, B. Janse van Rensburg, V. Vakatawa, N. Heward, and M. Malins.
