Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Preview
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns to action this weekend in a polarising title fight. He’ll face the Puerto Rican up-and-comer Edgar Berlanga in Las Vegas. It’s Mexican Independence Day weekend, so this means a lot to Canelo.
This isn’t the fight fans want to see, but the one they’re getting. Alvarez enters this bout as a heavy favourite, but Berlanga believes he can shock the world. Canelo’s super-middleweight titles are on the line.
They’ll compete for his WBA, WBC, and WBO straps. Most people expect Canelo to win, but Berlanga is a hard hitter and could cause an upset. There’s bad blood between these men, so expect fireworks in the ring.
Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Alvarez is one of the most recognizable combat sports athletes on the planet. Now 34 years old, the Mexican is an icon in his native country. He has a record of 61-2-2 with 39 knockout wins. He’s won nine titles across his glittering career and beaten the likes of Gennady Golovkin, Billy Joe Saunders, and Daniel Jacobs.
Canelo faced some criticism before this bout because it was not the match-up fans expected. They wanted him to face David Benavidez, but the Mexican superstar refused. Benavidez pushed hard for that fight before moving up a division. David Morrell was a mandatory option but Canelo ducked that fight too.
He says that he won’t let people bully him at this stage of his career. That’s why he’s fighting Berlanga. The undefeated Puerto Rican prospect is 22-0 with 17 knockout victories. However, there’s a sense that this fight is too much too soon for the former NABO Super-Middleweight champion.
Loading…🪫🔋 #CaneloBerlanga pic.twitter.com/vWlpXS8RQE
— Canelo Alvarez (@Canelo) September 5, 2024
Berlanga’s last clash was against seasoned Belfast veteran Padraig McCrory. Berlanga showed his dark side as he elbowed the Irish boxer and hit him with a couple of low blows. These dirty tactics went unpunished, but didn’t endear him to the crowd.
It didn’t matter because he outclassed McCrory and finished him in the sixth round. Berlanga started slowly because he was wary of McCrory’s power. Canelo is one of the sport’s hardest hitters, so it will be interesting to see if he takes a similar approach.
Meanwhile, Canelo’s last fight was a convincing decision over his countryman, Jaime Munguia. Munguia started fast, but Canelo showed his skills and outworked him across 12 rounds. Canelo has gone to a decision in each of his past five fights, including a defeat against Dmitry Bivol at light-heavyweight. His last knockout victory was over Caleb Plant in 2021. Both men fight out of an orthodox stance while Berlanga is four inches taller.
Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Predictions
It would be a massive shock if Berlanga defeats Canelo. That’s why our boxing prediction is that the pride of Mexico will add another scalp to his resume this weekend. We’re picking Canelo to win this fight by knockout.
Berlanga is an exciting young boxer. However, his lack of experience against top-quality opponents is alarming. He has never defeated a former champion and his best wins came against aging opponents.
‘The Chosen One’ defeated former WBC and WBO contender Roamer Angulo in 2022, but the Colombian was already past his prime. His victories over Padraig McCrory and Jason Quigley were impressive, but they’re not elite. It’s a massive jump from facing them to fighting the most lucrative man in combat sports.
Many boxing fans think it makes more sense for Berlanga to face Munguia next. This would be a natural next step for both men. Instead, Berlanga is taking a massive leap that could severely impact his career.
Floyd Mayweather famously fought Canelo before the Mexican entered his prime. It seems like Canelo is emulating this tactic. We think that he has too much nous and skill to lose to Berlanga right now.
Berlanga carries devastating power, but Canelo has faced big hitters before. He also has an outstanding chin. It’s going to be very difficult for ‘The Chosen One’ to get a finish. We think it’s more likely that Canelo will knock out Berlanga. Watch out for his body shots because this was an outstanding weapon against Rocky Fielding and Sergey Kovalev.
Edgar Berlanga gana su pelea noqueando a Padraig McCrory el pasado sábado por la noche en una cartelera de Matchroom Boxing. Al final de la pelea Berlanga pide enfrentar a Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez #Boxeo #NoticiasBoxeo #BoxingStuds #EdgarBerlanga pic.twitter.com/OtEWLtLJIK
— Boxing Studs Noticias (@BoxingStuds) February 29, 2024
Canelo will use his bodywork to take the gas out of Berlanga. This will reduce the Puerto Rican’s power and force him to lower his guard. Berlanga has an outstanding KO percentage, but this overlooks an obvious fact. Eddie Hearn handpicked easy opponents so he could pad his record.
Berlanga showed decent defence against McCrory. He may also look at how Dmitry Bivol used his jab effectively in his win over Canelo. Berlanga has a reach advantage over Alvarez. However, Bivol was significantly bigger and heavier in that match. ‘The Chosen One’ doesn’t have the same physical gifts as the Russian champion.
However, Alvarez is under some pressure to deliver an exciting finish. The fans aren’t happy because this isn’t the fight they hoped for. His recent finishing rate isn’t impressive and there are signs that he’s slowing down. But Marcelo Esteban dropped Berlanga, so it should be straightforward for Canelo.
Maybe Berlanga can catch him early and score a shocking knockdown. This could wake Canelo up and we’ll see the best of him. Check out the in-play betting during this bout because the odds may fluctuate.
Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Betting Tips
Saul Alvarez is a massive favourite to win this boxing match. It’s 1/25 for him to defeat Berlanga outright, with €10 only making a €0.40 profit. Betting on Canelo doesn’t make sense with these odds. Luckily, there are plenty of other boxing markets to choose from.
If you think Berlanga will stun the world and defeat Alvarez you can back him at 8/1. This time, a successful €10 stake would make an €80 profit. It would be a bold wager because the online sportsbook is confident of an Alvarez victory.
Betting on boxing offers many opportunities to make a profit. The method of victory markets are some of the most lucrative. We think that Alvarez will win this fight by KO/TKO. It’s 7/20 for him to achieve this with €10 potentially making €3.50. This may be more tempting with a bigger stake.
Canelo has failed to finish his opponent in all of his last five fights. The Mexican will be hungry to finally add his 40th KO/TKO to his record. However, a bet on Canelo to win by decision is worth 5/2. With his power seemingly lacking in recent fights, it could be worth backing the fight to go the distance once again. A €10 could make €25 if it works out.
If you’re picking a Canelo win by decision you could add the fight to go the distance as a prop bet. It’s 23/10 for this market so it’s a strong combination. It’s only 3/10 for this fight to finish before the end of the 12th round.
Try picking the round that this fight will finish. We expect it to finish between rounds seven and nine, worth 5/2 with our sports betting platform. Berlanga is tough but the bodywork will take its toll. Canelo is a different beast from anyone that he’s faced before. Boxing also offers grouped-round betting. It’s 11/10 for Alvarez to win between rounds seven and twelve.
"Canelo is gonna KO Berlanga in less than 6 rounds. I love Berlanga, hes my boy but this is too much for him…"
Teofimo Lopez Sr gives his #CaneloBerlanga prediction
See more here: https://t.co/ZQbIndsSgy pic.twitter.com/bu2w4BvjqI
— Marcos Villegas (@heyitsmarcosv) September 9, 2024
It’s 25/1 for Berlanga to knock out Canelo. We think this is his most likely method of victory. If you think he’ll outpoint the champion and win a decision you can back him at 18/1. We disagree with the betting site here because we can’t see him surviving that long. His best chance is catching Canelo sleeping and pouring on the offence.
If you don’t think that this fight offers enough value, check out the rest of the card. You can bet on Erislandy Lara in his title defence against Danny Garcia in one of the fights of the night. Canelo’s former opponent Caleb Plant boxes Trevor Mccumby. A bet on Plant is worth 1/14. Consider creating an accumulator using the welcome bonus or another promotion.
Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Outcome
It would be a shock of massive proportions if Canelo doesn’t beat Berlanga in this fight. Berlanga knows that an immediate rematch is on the cards if he stuns the Mexican icon. He would become an overnight superstar with riches beyond his wildest imagination.
It’s more difficult to predict what’s next for Canelo if he gets through Berlanga. Terence Crawford was once an unlikely match-up because of the size difference. However, this could make it more tempting for Canelo at this stage of his career. Crawford is 36 and hasn’t had the massive paydays that his talent deserves.
Fans desperately want the Benavidez fight, but we don’t see it happening. Instead, we can see him trying to fight Dmitry Bivol if he gets through Artur Beterbiev. This would be a mistake because we can’t see that result changing. Canelo has options, but we’re not sure how satisfying they will be for his fanbase.
