Paddy Pimblett vs Bobby Green Preview
The UFC heads to Manchester on July 27, where Paddy Pimblett and Bobby Green clash in lightweight action with the main card scheduled to begin at 3:00 am. Both men are hoping to enter the top 15 with a victory.
Pimblett has become one of the biggest stars in the promotion since his debut in 2021. Can he continue his surge to a title eliminator with a victory over Green or will the veteran stop him in his tracks?
Paddy Pimblett vs Bobby Green Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The UFC’s lightweight division is among the most stacked in the promotion. Islam Makhachev leads as the 145lb champion and there are five former belt holders in the top 15. Paddy Pimblett has enjoyed a meteoric rise since making his UFC debut in September 2021. The Baddy hopes to crack the top 20 with a win over Bobby Green on Saturday.
The former featherweight Cage Warriors champion entered his debut fight in the UFC with a ton of hype behind him. He made good on the promise with a first-round KO victory over Luigi Vendramini, beginning a run of three straight performance-of-the-night bonuses. The scouse fighter submitted Rodrigo Vargas in his sophomore fight before choking out Jordan Leavitt in his third, completing three finishes in a row. A contentious decision victory over Jared Gordon followed, leading to his most high-profile fight yet at UFC 296 in December 2023 against the legendary Tony Ferguson.
Pimblett secured a unanimous decision victory over the former interim lightweight champion, sweeping El Cucuy on all three scorecards for a 30-27 win. He outstruck Ferguson, landing 151 strikes with 106 significant strikes to 90 and 62. The Baddy scored a knockdown in round one and dominated from thereon out. He has dazzled fans so far, fighting fearlessly and initiating exchanges on his feet despite his strong Jiu-Jitsu background. The 29-year-old has proven he is dangerous whether grappling or striking with a KO and two submission victories in five fights in the UFC.
Veteran fighter Bobby Green will enter the 50th professional fight of his career when he faces Pimblett, his 26th in the UFC. King Green has a couple of opponents in common with his fellow 145lber. His fight with Jared Gordon in April 2023 ended with a no-contest following an accidental clash of heads in round one. He fought Ferguson three months later. Like Pimblett, King outstruck El Cucuy in all three rounds before sinking in an arm triangle choke in round three for the submission victory.
Green followed up with a first-round KO victory over Grant Dawson for a performance-of-the-night bonus the following October but was on the receiving end of the same fate against Jalin Turner two months later. It was back to winning ways in his most recent fight. He faced Jim Miller in April and put on a highly impressive performance, brutalising the UFC favourite. The first round was tight but King dominated the next two with all three judges scoring in his favour. He won a unanimous decision with the scorecards reading 29-27, 30-25 and 29-26.
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller (2024)
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Both fighters stand at 5’10” but Pimblett boasts a two-inch reach advantage. The Baddy has a record of 24-3 with six knockouts and nine submission victories. He is currently on a seven-fight win streak. Green is 32-15-1-1 with 11 knockouts and nine submission victories. The Californian holds the record for the most significant strikes in UFC Lightweight division history (1,845) and the most total strikes landed in UFC Lightweight division history (2,072).
Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction
Prediction: Pimblett to win by decision
This fight is very tight on paper. Tony Ferguson is the biggest name on Paddy Pimblett’s record, but Bobby Green will be the toughest fight of his career so far at UFC 304. King has excellent boxing and Paddy absorbs a lot of punches, fighting with his chin out. The American also has excellent takedown defence and strong grappling skills. However, this is where Paddy can do some damage. He is faster and more agile than Green’s previous opponent and boasts a much stronger grappling ability. We are being brave with our MMA prediction for a Paddy Pimblett victory.
The scouser can fight on the outside with the reach advantage while Bobby tries to push him back before shooting for takedowns. Green, while boasting strong takedown defence, tends to give up his back. That would be a huge mistake against the Baddy, who will pounce where the likes of Miller and Ferguson did not. Once he has his back, he can lay in vicious ground strikes or sink in a choke.
Six of the British fighter’s nine submission victories have come from rear naked chokes. His most recent came against Jordan Leavitt in July 2022. Leavitt pushed the pace in the fight, keeping Paddy’s back to the cage and clinching. From there, the Baddy was constantly looking to control Leavitt’s back or sink in chokes. He finished the first round with his legs locked under the American, mounted and swinging punches to the side of the head. Five seconds longer and the fight would have ended there.
Leavitt survived but continued the second round in the same way. With his back to the cage, Paddy manoeuvred round his opponent, took his back and sunk in the rear naked for a victory. Green will fight with the same pressure Leavitt attempted and Pimblett thrives in those positions. While he is less likely to initiate clinches, his style is susceptible to takedown attempts.
The Baddy will have to fight smarter than he has before. He has absorbed some enormous blows to the chin in the UFC. So far, he has come away unscathed, but that can change in a fight like this. Green packs a lot of power, and Paddy must respect it. However, the American often fights with his hands down.
This led to a scare early on against Jim Miller, who took King off his feet in round one before recovering. He was also caught and knocked down by Ferguson in the first round of their fight for the same reason. Pimblett has fast hands and possesses knockout power of his own. Both men are hittable, and we may see a more careful approach from them on Saturday.
Paddy Pimblett vs Bobby Green Betting Tips
King Green enters this fight as the favourite, though they are close when looking at the UFC betting odds. A bet on Pimblett is worth 10/11 while a moneyline bet on Green is worth 17/20. Paddy Pimblett is fighting in the UK for the third time in his UFC career and the UK typically shows out for their homegrown talent. He is on a seven-fight tear, will have the crowd behind him, and should have a more calculated game plan than before. We like a moneyline wager on Pimblett. Going along with our prediction, you can extend those odds by betting on Pimblett to win by decision, worth 3/1.
With the moneyline odds tight between the fighters, there will be opportunities for plus-money wagers. King Green has 15 losses on his record, seven of which have been finishes. Pimblett has never lost by KO/TKO and was only submitted once. He has improved his boxing, as shown in his fight with Ferguson, and has the obvious edge in grappling exchanges. A bet on Paddy Pimblett to stop Bobby Green inside three rounds is priced favourably.
MMA odds often price submission victories favourably. Green has only been submitted twice in his career, but Paddy has two in his last four fights. We have covered how Pimblett can find success in taking King’s back, it’s up to him how he finishes it. We like a long shot on Paddy Pimblett to win via submission, worth 9/2. You can wager on this long shot at our online betting site. Plus, you can register and claim a welcome bonus if you are a new member.
Over/under betting is an option and they have set the line at 2.5 rounds. Both fighters have a healthy number of finishes on their records, but their most recent bouts have gone to the judge’s scorecards. A finish can come from either side, but there is also a chance that both fighters choose to respect their respective power and fight safer than usual. We are fading on this pre-fight and recommend inspecting the live betting odds for the over/under.
Paddy Pimblett vs Bobby Green Full Fight Card
There are tons of exciting opportunities for MMA betting on this stacked card. There will be two title fights at UFC 304 with home nation champions defending their belts in Manchester.
Tom Aspinall defends his heavyweight title for the first time in a rematch with Curtis Blaydes. The champion clashed with Blaydes in London in July 2022 but suffered a freak knee injury 15 seconds into the fight. He won the interim title when he beat Sergei Pavlovich in November 2023 and wants to avenge the blemish on his record.
Leon Edwards won the welterweight title from Kamaru Usman in August 2022 in one of the most dramatic title victories in history. Rocky has defended his title twice since and looks to make it a hat trick when he faces Belal Muhammad. The two 170lbers have history, having fought to a no contest in March 2021 following an accidental eye poke from Edwards. Muhammad is on a nine-fight win streak and has carried on a rivalry with Edwards outside of the octagon since their first meeting.
Main Card
- Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad; UFC welterweight title
- Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes; UFC interim heavyweight title
- Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett; Lightweight
- Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape; Flyweight
- Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze; Featherweight
Preliminary Card
- Nathaniel Wood vs Daniel Pineda; Featherweight
- Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil; Women’s strawweight
- Mick Parkin vs Lukasz Brzeski; Heavyweight
